Expert the RMB exchange rate has fallen by nearly 10% but will not accelerate depreciation 高达08ms小队

Expert: RMB exchange rate depreciated nearly 10% in August 11, 2015 China but will not accelerate the depreciation of the central bank to implement the central parity of RMB exchange rate pricing mechanism reform, the RMB exchange rate volatility caused by three consecutive days, the cumulative depreciation rate of more than 5%, the largest decline in 20 years. As of the end of 2016 8, the RMB exchange rate has fallen by nearly 10%. The devaluation of the renminbi is expected to still exist, and there is a gradual warming trend, the rapid decline in foreign exchange reserves, the Fed rate hike cycle into the impact of financial liberalization and the acceleration of multiple factors, the market began to worry about whether it will happen even Chinese currency crisis. The consequences of currency crisis is very serious, the international experience shows that currency crisis is a key link in emerging economies a full-blown financial crisis, once the currency crisis, the outbreak usually worsen domestic financial risks and lead to full-blown financial crisis. Serious and being known as the financial crisis was accompanied by a currency crisis in Mexico 1994-1995 crisis in 1997-1998, the Southeast Asian financial crisis in 2001-2002, Argentina’s financial crisis in emerging economies such as the history of the most. From a historical point of view, the emerging economies in the eve of the occurrence of the currency crisis, and the economic indicators are closely related to the exchange rate will generally deteriorate. For example, economic growth as basic factors of exchange rate will decline sharply, the main factors of the current account balance as a function of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market will be from surplus to deficit, an important factor in the balance of foreign debts as induced by currency devaluation expected a sharp increase in foreign exchange reserves, as an important strategic asset preventing currency crisis will quickly reduce. Capital controls appear as an important means to defend the currency attack and so on to relax. At present, China’s economic growth is slowing down, the current account of the recession has been a surplus, foreign exchange reserves have dropped significantly compared with the previous period, these factors have increased the risk of China’s exchange rate to a certain extent. However, I believe that China will not be a currency crisis, there are five main reasons. First, from a global perspective, China’s economic growth is still high. In 2015, Chinese economic growth rate reached 6.9%, far higher than the global (3.1%), (1.9%) developed economies and emerging markets and developing economies (4%) economic growth, is also much higher than the United States (2.4%), the euro zone (1.7%), Japan (0.5%) and the UK (2.2%) and other major international reserve the currency of economic growth. Compared with the economic growth of emerging economies in the run-up to the crisis, it is more obvious that China is unlikely to have a currency crisis. On the eve of the emerging economies monetary crisis, economic growth usually appear cliff style decline, or even negative growth, is the result of market confidence in the country’s economic and monetary exchange rate plummeted and thus lead to important factors. For example, in 1995 the Mexico currency crisis, Mexico’s economic growth fell 10 percentage points in a year, a negative growth (from 4.7% to 1997 fell sharply -5.8%); Thailand currency crisis, Thailand’s economic growth by 8% (1994) dropped to -2.8% (1.相关的主题文章: