Gold rally is not the end of this

This is not the end of the gold rally Sina Finance opinion leaders column (WeChat public kopleader) fundamentals of environmental columnist Xiao Lei in the supply of scarce and very low interest rates and other risk assets is not stable, and the trend of the investment demand has not changed, the price of gold callback space is limited, with the U.S. presidential election, the referendum in Italy and the U.S. interest rate hike and landing step by step, the price of gold during the year still have back above $1300, power to keep rising trend. The gold price rally is not over the international price of gold fell 4.8% in a week, this is the largest since September 2013 a single week decline, during this period, the market does not appear bad news is very important, it can be said that this is an outbreak of investors to recognize the market risk and set in. About the crash, there are many kinds of interpretation and analysis, sum up, there are two reasons to form a consensus, the Fed interest rate is expected to increase, another is the market of global central bank policy of quantitative easing reversal concerns. First, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the end what does it mean? Fed interest rate hike is expected, it is necessary to consider the underlying assumptions and evolutionary assumptions. The United States has just announced in September non farm employment data is worse than expected, but the Fed vice chairman Fisher said, employment report close to the "beautiful" figures, the U.S. economy in reducing unemployment has outstanding success, the unemployment rate to a certain extent is very close to the natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate is indeed an important indicator of the Fed’s actions before inflation becomes a focus. But how to find a forward-looking and prospective data between the unemployment rate and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to analyze the Fed’s move? In fact, in the United States, the proportion of non manufacturing sector in the economy of more than 75%, changes in the non manufacturing employment trends, industry related enterprises of new orders and the price is very important for the American economy change observation. Economists and politicians are starting to pay more and more attention to the ISM non manufacturing index, which is timely and helps to predict important economic indicators (such as inflation, employment data, etc.). On Thursday announced the U.S. September ISM non manufacturing index rose to 57.1, ending two losing streak, an increase of more than five and a half years, the news directly stimulate the market expected the fed to raise interest rates, gold prices continued to slump has become a booster. Figure 1 can be seen from the figure, the U.S. payrolls data changes, with the trend of U.S. non manufacturing index is highly consistent, but in recent times the Fed rate hike starting point, it is also in non manufacturing index and nonfarm payrolls are in continuous expansion and relatively stable when the. However, with the 1999, as well as the first two rounds of interest rate increase in 2004 compared to the time lag of the interest rate some lag. Seen from the figure, the best time of the Fed’s current interest rate hike should be at the end of 2014 (when the two data, more strong) rather than at the end of 2015, which means that the future interest rate hike to bring economic uncertainty increased, and may even lead the United States into the next round)相关的主题文章: