Turn the foreign bank from Deutsche Bank to Goldman have warned of the risk of property China-shdoclc.dll

Turn the foreign bank from deutsche bank Goldman to face the rising price in the market risk warning Chinese, leverage rapid amplification of the Chinese property market, more and more foreign firms warned the real estate market to the banking system may cause the risk of bad debts". DBS only DBS securities (Vickers) believes that if prices fell by 30% from the current level, the bank loans will be issued in the bad debts of up to $4 trillion and 100 billion, the size of up to $4%. Based on the same decline, the German Commercial Bank estimates the scale of bad debts in 4 trillion yuan. The bond fund PMICO is expected, based on the risk of the property market, the Bank of China in the next few years, the NPL ratio will rise from the current 1.75% level, quickly climbed to the peak of 6%. China’s central bank has warned about the risk of a rapid rise in the property market to the banking system. Chinese central bank research bureau chief economist Ma Jun said in mid September, to curb excessive financial resources into the real estate industry, over the past 10 years, the source of leverage is the increase in prices rose 1/3. Goldman Sachs announced on October 4th that the property market research report, Chinese "rocket jump up" after the rise, the future risk of a bubble is sharply enlarged. Wall Street informative network had previously reported that Deutsche Bank chief economist Zhang Zhiwei believes that China’s real estate market will be a big adjustment in 2018. Zhang Zhiwei of China’s 10 major cities in the land auction bid price discovery, unless prices continue to rise, otherwise the land will not be able to shoot commercial feasibility. "Even if house prices stop at the current level, a total of 252 of the land auction in the research sample, 105 cases will be taken on housing prices caused the loss, its value accounted for more than 50% of the total value, the amount of the loss will be as high as 93 billion yuan." DBS’s only high securities banking analyst Chen Shujin said, real estate is the biggest risk in China’s banking sector. If the housing market prices fell sharply, the developers will be the first impact of loans, because they are the highest leverage sector. The second level is the impact of mortgage loans." Chen Shujin estimates that 7% of bank loans to developers, the inflow of residential mortgage loans to 20%. JP Morgan Asset Management Asia market chief analyst Tai Hui believes that the property market to remind him of the previous year’s stock market frenzy. "This is just like the stock market, when you deregulation, they are like a runaway horse general rose. Now you must control, and like a bucket challenge. So the policy always swings between extreme heat and cold. Doing so is bad for the economy, because you are bound to go through a very positive investment cycle." Household debt structure is still healthy Chinese household debt to GDP ratio from 2010 at the end of 28%, rose to the current level of 40.5%, but still lower than in developed countries. U.S. household debt to GDP ratio of 80%, South Korea was 85%, Japan was $66%. In addition, China’s mortgage down payment ratio is generally higher than 30%, which means that even if the property market decline, foreclosure risk is also lower相关的主题文章: